Decision Making

A system is “what” we are thinking about or deciding upon, and thinking critically entails overcoming Thinking Traps to form an objective judgment about the system. With an objective judgement of the system, one is in a position to decide what action to the system will most likely yield the desired outcome from the system.  

 

My decision-making framework has three core elements:

1. Manage risk.

2. Prevent harm.

3. Decision rigor.

 

Manage Risk.  Because of the inherent uncertainty of complex systems, it’s best to identify and assess alternative actions for yielding the desired outcome. There may be tradeoffs between the alternatives, including the likelihood of a positive outcome as well as the possibility of a negative outcome.  Unfortunately, it’s often human nature to decide to take an action despite the possibility of a materially bad outcome because we view that bad outcome as highly improbable or even impossible.  A risk management framework is needed for taking the probability and consequences of negative outcomes into our decision-making process.  

 

Prevent Harm.  In certain situations, a potential negative outcome from an action is that of harm to a person or people.  While the harm could include physical harm, my focus is on the harm caused by bias, misinformation, and manipulation, which brings ethical considerations into the decision.  Most everyone considers themselves to be ethical, but we may not understand that there are different and conflicting basis for being ethical. By understanding this, you can ensure that ethics are an explicit and intentional part of decision making.  

 

Decision Rigor.  Deciding on what action to take on a complex matter most often involves multiple, and possibly conflicting factors, that need to be taken into consideration. In personal decisions, while we own the decision, we may need input from others who disagree on the decision factors.  In the private and public sectors, arriving at a decision often entails the proponents of different actions debating one another, pointing out why they are right, and others are wrong. I have created a framework for effective decision making on complex systems, including decision rights, decision criteria, and objectively evaluating alternative decisions